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Chau, K W (1995) Monte Carlo simulation of construction costs using subjective data. Construction Management and Economics, 13(05), 369-83.

  • Type: Journal Article
  • Keywords: cost; Monte Carlo simulation; probabilistic cost estimate
  • ISBN/ISSN: 0144-6193
  • URL: https://doi.org/10.1080/01446199500000042
  • Abstract:

    This paper critically examines the problems arising from the assumptions of independence and triangular distribution in the risk analysis of construction costs. These two assumptions have been widely adopted by researchers and practitioners alike. However, they lead to bias in the analysis. With the aid of a spreadsheet and a risk analysis add-on program, the nature of the resulting bias can be illustrated using both empirical and simulated data. Various possible solutions which seek to reduce the bias are explored. Their practicality under real life constraints is examined. A tentative practical solution is proposed and evaluated against the existing approach. The method and logic of the solution are also discussed. The approach is applied to two sets of data to illustrate its use and to test the reasonableness of the approach.

Ibañez-Guzmán, J (1995) Modelling of on-site work cells for the simulation of automated and semi-automated construction. Construction Management and Economics, 13(05), 427-34.

Mak, S W (1995) Risk analysis in construction: a paradigm shift from a hard to soft approach. Construction Management and Economics, 13(05), 385-92.

Modin, J (1995) KBS-CLASS: a neural network tool for automatic content recognition of building texts. Construction Management and Economics, 13(05), 411-6.

O'Brien, W J, Fischer, M A and Jucker, J V (1995) An economic view of project coordination. Construction Management and Economics, 13(05), 393-400.

Oxman, R E (1995) Data, knowledge and experience in multi-user information systems. Construction Management and Economics, 13(05), 401-9.

Sloan, B (1995) In search of excellence in learning: the strategic value of computer-assisted learning (CAL). Construction Management and Economics, 13(05), 435-9.

Yamazaki, Y (1995) An integrated construction planning system using object-oriented product and process modelling. Construction Management and Economics, 13(05), 417-26.